Avinno Faruk

Graduate Student in Economics and Computer Science

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Research

My research is organized as follows:

Published Journal Articles:

Refereed

COVID-19 vaccination: Willingness and Practice in Bangladesh (preliminary report, slides)
with Ishmam Al-Quddus (2023, Development Policy Review )

Motivation: The urgency and scale of mass adult immunization for COVID-19 presents a huge challenge for any low- and middle-income country (LMIC) like Bangladesh. Our analysis focuses on demand-side constraints early in the vaccination campaign to help gauge vaccine acceptability and potential contributing factors. Identifying registration and compliance challenges early on will help ensure a seamless immunization programme.
Purpose: We seek to identify subgroups who may need specific interventions by comparing willingness to be vaccinated and registration behaviour, and to understand how actual registration and take-up decisions compare between rural areas and urban slum areas.
Approach and Methods: We use data from three surveys conducted between late January and early September 2021. The article includes a nationally representative survey on vaccine acceptability and a study on vaccination rollout behaviour in rural and urban slums.
Findings: Willingness was not an issue in Bangladesh, but the challenge was getting individuals to register. Once they did, compliance was very high. When the information gap regarding registration was addressed by campaigning, registration and take-up increased. Confidence in public service delivery influenced favourable responses to mass immunization efforts. Women were falling behind initially in terms of both registration knowledge and completion. Online registration needed to be complemented with alternatives. Social networking was a vital source of information and encouragement.
Policy implications: Communication strategies are necessary to inform the public at an early stage, and these should provide information about registration eligibility and detailed registration instructions. Ensuring and sustaining service quality is also beneficial. In LMICs like Bangladesh, low-tech intensive registration methods are required. Information campaigns about the registration procedure should specifically target rural communities and women. Community-based mechanisms may reduce transaction costs and increase confidence.

How Are Women Faring in the Bangladeshi Labour Market? Evidence from Labour Force Survey Data
with Sayema Haque Bidisha and Tanveer Mahmood (2022, South Asia Economic Journal )

In Bangladesh, despite increased participation in the labour market in recent decades, women are still lagging behind men by a significant margin, with the former being concentrated chiefly in low-paid agriculture as well as in the lower stages of the occupational ladder. With the help of the latest labour market data of 2016–2017 coupled with 2011 census data, this article attempts to examine gender segregation through sectoral and occupational lenses. Our econometric estimation of different sectors (agriculture, manufacturing, construction and service) reflects the importance of gender-centric factors such as care burden and marital status along with local employment opportunities in constraining women’s labour market engagement. Besides, decomposition analysis highlights that unfavourable returns to endowments play a crucial role in females’ concentration in relatively low-productive sectors. Sectoral and occupational segregation indices reflect a high degree of segregation between men and women. Thus, against the backdrop of the concentration of women in low-skilled jobs and a low-productive sector, this article expects to provide important policy insights for boosting female employment in relatively high-productive sectors and high-paid occupations while utilizing the structural shift in the labour market of Bangladesh.

Analysing the glass ceiling and sticky floor effects in Bangladesh: evidence, extent and elements (2021, SN Business & Economics )

With deep-seated gender imbalances prevalent in Bangladesh, it is compelling to understand how those women, who do manage to get employed, are faring in terms of equity. A popular approach involves analysing the gender wage gap across the entire distribution. With the assistance of the latest data from QLFS 2016–2017, the gender wage gap is decomposed, with selection issues addressed by Buchinsky (J Appl Econom 13(1):1–30, 1998) method. The paper has then proceeded to posit the existence of a strong sticky floor effect and a weaker glass ceiling effect in Bangladesh, with discriminatory rewards to observed characteristics being the dominant feature of the observed wage gap across the entire distribution. Women face discrimination at the bottom end chiefly due to differences in returns. On the other hand, women at the top are subject to extensive discrimination despite being superior to men in terms of endowment. Consequently, low-earning women require access to jobs which reward their skills as much as their male counterparts; the same holds true for the high-income group. There is also evidence of selection bias for both genders. Policy prescriptions based on these findings and potential avenues for further scope concerning the paper are also mentioned in the end.

Non-Refereed

Some Theoretical Deliberations on the Challenges and Behaviors of the Shock-Induced New Poor
(Summer 2023, Duke Journal of Economics )

The paper constructs a model to show the relative welfare reductions of the new poor, who are less agile in their shock response compared to the old poor, in the presence of addictive habits and temptation. Addiction to a previous better lifestyle differentiates them from the old poor and leads to lower adaptability in behavior during the initial stages of an economic shock. The new poor households, provided that they do not either go cold turkey or regret and rectify their actions, lose out from four channels:(i) fewer resources to consume in the pre-shock period as they save up for the shock period;(ii) growing addictive behavior due to their failure to adapt;(iii) temptation goods increasing ‘impatience’or first-period consumption, raising addiction and increasing the latter’s consumption share as the new poor’s consumption levels fall; and, perhaps most importantly,(iv) a dwindling share of the essential normal good from this multitude of effects during an economic crisis.

Accepted Manuscripts:

Book Chapters

Recovery With Distress: Unpacking COVID-19 Impact on Livelihoods and Poverty in Rural Areas and Urban Low-Income Settlements of Bangladesh
with Hossain Zillur Rahman, Atiya Rahman, Md. Saiful Islam, Imran Matin, Mohammad Abdul Wazed, and Umama Zillur ( 2024, COVID-19 and the Informal Economy: Impact, Recovery, and the Future; Oxford University Press)

The Impact of COVID-19 on Bangladeshi Economy
with Muhammad Shahadat Hossain Siddiquee (2024, COVID-19 in South Asia: Society, Economics and Politics; Routledge)

Published Reports and Working Papers:

Working Papers

Sentiment of Bangladeshi Residents Toward Covid-19 Lockdowns: Qualitative Analyses of Open-Ended Responses in a Large Panel Survey
with Daryl Collins, Derry Moore, and Pravarakya Reddy Battula ( 2022, BIGD Working Paper: Governance and Politics Series 67)

This paper explores the public sentiment of Bangladeshi residents concerning the lockdowns imposed by the Bangladeshi government in 2021 in response to COVID-19. Through open-ended question design and analyses of natural language using NLP and sociolinguistic techniques, we show detailed, nuanced sentiments as well as common themes and discussions these sentiments are seated. Additionally, using a range of discursive analytical measures, we explore the interactions between enumerators and participants in live survey conditions, providing alternative methods to and potential field guidance for enumerator survey methods.

Recovery With Distress: Unpacking Covid-19 Impact On Livelihoods And Poverty In Bangladesh.
with Hossain Zillur Rahman, Atiya Rahman, Md. Saiful Islam, Imran Matin, Mohammad Abdul Wazed, and Umama Zillur ( 2022, WIDER Working Paper 2022/13)

The social and economic impact of COVID-19 has been deep, wide-ranging, and multi-dimensional. While anecdotal evidence of distress among the poor, particularly those with informal occupations, has been widespread, effective policy response has required real-time, researched data disaggregated for urban and rural populations and for various categories of the poor. The Power and Participation Research Centre and BRAC Institute of Governance and Development’s four-round panel survey during 2020–21 provides unique insights into how COVID-19 impacted specific categories of the poor and vulnerable in Bangladesh, their coping strategies, and the extent to which policy support materialized. While the poor as a whole demonstrated their agency in the face of the crisis, their resilience has been as much about deepening vulnerability as about recovery, representing an unfair burden of distress resilience. Informal workers, women, and the urban poor have been disproportionately impacted.

COVID-19’s Impact on Bangladesh Economy
with Muhammad Shahadat Hossain Siddiquee ( 2020, BIGD Working Paper: Macroeconomics Series 01)

This BIGD study examines the impact of COVID-19’s impact on the major economic and financial indicators of the economy of Bangladesh, including production, wages, price levels, advances, bills, investments, remittances and foreign trade, using the secondary data published by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh Bank (BB), and the Ministry of Finance (MoF). In addition to the recent impact of the global economic meltdown, Bangladesh also experienced severe demand contraction in the local economy; this exacerbated the overall economic crisis of the country. Considering the duration and severity of COVID-19, we examine its impact on major economic and financial indicators of the Bangladesh economy and recommended policy responses for recovery, based on the analysis. Both domestic and international demands declined due to the outbreak and subsequent lockdown, and, thus, producers responded by lowering output to minimize the loss, especially in the manufacturing sectors. Findings reveal that the nominal Wage Rate Index (WRI) in the industry and service sectors fell in recent times, which now appears to be recovering. The national inflation rate has not been affected much based-on point-to-point changes. Food inflation fell in May 2020 and stood at 5.09 percent, but it appears to have risen recently. Non-food inflation rates have been falling over the last six months since April-September 2020. Prudent measures should include constant monitoring and adapting to the latest developments in major trading partners and host countries to mitigate the economic losses caused. Bank credit would play a key role in the ongoing and upcoming recovery process, as the government has opted for a credit-led stimulus package.

Reports

Social Protection During Covid Times: Research for Building Forward Better
with Muhammad Shahadat Hossain Siddiquee and Imran Matin ( 2022)

Various activities undertaken by the government include widening coverage of the social safety nets to protect the poor and the new poor due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite such an increase in social protection coverage and spending amid COVID-19, many of the poor are still excluded due to the lack of a social registry and proper implementation and distribution strategies. This study aims to critically scrutinize the Bangladesh government’s support under the umbrella of social protection during COVID-19 in order to assess the social justice agenda based on a systematic inquiry to look at the secondary data. It also tries and identifies the drawbacks, which are rooted in the existing social protection framework, associated with the planning, designing, programming, and delivery of the various social protection programs and projects in order to ensure social justice from the rights, governance, distribution, and access perspectives. More specifically, the scoping study would help highlight the caveats of Bangladesh’s social protection during pandemics and identify the scope of future research and policy actions to mitigate the potential impacts of future shocks on the livelihoods of the poor, marginalized and impoverished people by constructing a comprehensive and dynamic social protection system.

Published Policy Writing:

Policy/Research Briefs

Education Life of Children during COVID-19: Trends in Learning Loss, Digital Inclusion, Mental Health, and Child Labour
with Hossain Zillur Rahman, Atiya Rahman, Md. Saiful Islam, Eradul Kabir, Imran Matin, Mohammad Abdul Wazed, Umama Zillur, Md. Billal Hossain, and Md. Masudul Haque (2022, BIGD Research Brief: Education Series 10 )

The report discusses the major findings on the educational life of rural and urban slum-dwelling children in Bangladesh during COVID-19, based on two rounds of surveys in March and August 2021. The data was collected as part of a larger study that has been tracking the livelihoods of the citizens in rural and urban slums since the pandemic hit the country. The larger study is a collaborative effort between the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) and the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC). Poor quality of education was a grave concern in Bangladesh even before the pandemic, and the long school closure during COVID-19 has worsened the quality problems. Early into the pandemic, research by BIGD indicated the likelihood of significant learning losses due to schools closing. In this phase of the joint study by PPRC and BIGD, the authors examine the learning loss trend, the role of mother’s education in learning loss risk, digital inclusion in remote learning methods, the mental health of primary and secondary schoolchildren, and the indirect effects of the pandemic, such as the high incidence of child labour. Male students in secondary school were found to be at the highest risk of learning loss, possibly due to the livelihood pressure induced by the pandemic.

Blogs

The labour market implications of COVID-19 for Bangladeshi women
with Sayema Haque Bidisha ( July 2020, United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) )